Celebrity architect Dermot Bannon was spotted back in Donegal last weekend enjoying some highlights of Inishowen.The ‘Room to Improve’ star wasn’t here to revamp anyone’s home this time, but for a leisurely holiday by the sea.The team at Fort Dunree were delighted to welcome a special guest on Saturday when Dermot showed up with friends for a kayaking experience. “He’s never done kayaking before and he loved it. He said he loved Donegal,” said staff member Bernadette Long.Dermot Bannon and friends visit Fort Dunree. Image via @dunree2018 InstagramFort Dunree is a popular military museum which boasts breath-taking views of Lough Swilly and natural scenery.Water-sports enthusiasts can kayak beneath the fort with Inish Adventures and discover the many caves and rock formations at the historical site.“A lot of people travel to us to do the kayaking. Within minutes you are in caves. Dermot and his friends were well impressed,” added Bernadette. Dermot Bannon kayaking at Fort Dunree. Image via @dunree2018 InstagramDermot Bannon kayaking at Fort Dunree. Image via @dunree2018 InstagramDermot Bannon’s special edition of Room to Improve with Daniel and Majella O’Donnell was RTE’s fourth most watched programme of 2018. Over 860,000 viewers tuned in to see the property show, which was set in Daniel’s homeland of Kincasslagh.Dermot’s summer weekend in Donegal took him to Ballyliffin on Sunday. He went swimming at the local beach and called into Nancy’s Barn to sample their famous dish – the ‘World’s Best Chowder’.World Champion Chowder Chef Kieran Duey Doherty with Architect Dermot Bannon in Nancy’s Barn BallyliffinThe seafood dish went down a treat, according to award-winning Chef Kieran Duey Doherty.“Dermot loved the chowder and Nancy’s Barn and he plans to return again,” Kieran said.After dining on the terrace, the architect also checked out the restaurant building and offered his expert advice. “He said not to change Nancy’s Barn’s structure as it was perfect and he loved it with loads of glass to the rear of it,” Kieran said.So, no Room to Improve there!Kieran added that their celebrity visitor was a “real gentleman” and that he plans to return to Inishowen again soon.Room to be impressed! TV star Dermot Bannon amazed by Donegal was last modified: July 22nd, 2019 by Rachel McLaughlinShare this:Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window)Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window)Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window)Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window)Click to share on Pocket (Opens in new window)Click to share on Telegram (Opens in new window)Click to share on WhatsApp (Opens in new window)Click to share on Skype (Opens in new window)Click to print (Opens in new window)Tags:Dermot BannonFORT DUNREEInishowenNancy’s Barn
Yes, it’s true. Tom Brady suffered a bitter defeat in one of sports’ crown jewel events over the weekend.The GOAT lost a 14-1 bet on an equine in the Kentucky Derby.Per cbssports.com: “During a pre-race interview with NBC’s Von Miller, Brady revealed who he was going to bet on in the race. Apparently the Patriots quarterback loves a good long shot, because he decided to put his money on Code of Honor.”Brady’s horse finished in third place. But wait — Code of Honor was moved up to second, and …
The rain held off for the entirety of the day, before proceeding to fall just moments after the final siren of the day sounded. In the Men’s Open division, last year’s premiers the South Queensland Sharks got off to a good start, defeating the home side the Sunshine Coast Pineapples. The Sharks were tested by the Pineapples, but took the game 6-4. The Hunter Western Hornets and the Central Queensland Bulls were both four touchdown winners over the Defence Warriors and the ACT respectively. After being runners up in 2009, the Sydney Scorpions started their campaign strongly, defeating the Northern Territory 12-1. Other winners included the Brisbane City Cobras over the Northern Eagles 12-4, Tasmania defeated Victoria by three touchdowns, while the Sydney Rebels defeated the Western Tigers 9-7. There were some big scores in round two of the Men’s Open division, with the Cobras beating Victoria 14-8, the Sharks defeating Tasmania 12-2, the Scorpions defeating the Tigers 13-8 and the ACT proving too strong against the Hornets 11-2. The local hopes, the Pineapples, got their first win of the tournament in round two, defeating the Tropical Cyclones 9-2, while other winners included the Rebels over the Bulls by two touchdowns and the Northern Territory over the Defence Warriors 9-3. The Western Tigers were impressive in round three, defeating the Defence Warriors by seven touchdowns, 10-3. The Pineapples got their second win of the day, defeating the Northern Eagles by four touchdowns, while the Pirates challenged the Rebels to only go down by two touchdowns. The Scorpions and the Sharks were at their brilliant best, beating the Hornets and Victoria respectively, to end day one without a loss. In other games, Central Queensland were five touchdown winners over the Northern Territory, while the Cobras defeated North Queensland 9-3. After the end of day one, the Scorpions, Sharks, Cobras and Rebels all sit on 12 points on the ladder, following their respective undefeated starts to the tournament. After finishing runners up last year in the Women’s Open division, the South Queensland Sharks started their campaign with a 11-0 win over South Australia, while the Northern Eagles were also big winners over the Defence Warriors, 10-0. The Hunter Western Hornets also had a 10-0 win in round when they defeated Singapore. Last year’s premiers the Sydney Mets also had a win in round one, when they defeated Tasmania 8-1. Other winners in round one include the Southern Suns over the South West Queensland Swans by two touchdowns, while the Brisbane City Cobras just edged out Victoria, 4-3. The North Queensland Tropical Cyclones were three touchdowns victors over the Sydney Rebels, while the Sunshine Coast Pineapples were 7-2 winners over the ACT Pirates. The Mets continued their dominance in round two, defeating Victoria 16-3, while the Sharks and South West Queensland played out a 2-all draw. South Australia and Tasmania both got their first wins of the tournament in round two, defeating Singapore and the Defence Warriors respectively. In other results, the Suns defeated the Pineapples 2-1 in a close encounter, the Cobras were too good for the Rebels 4-1, while the Eagles were two touchdown winners over the ACT. Following the first day of play, five teams sit on top of the ladder following their two wins, namely, the Mets, Eagles, Hornets, Cobras and Suns. The Sydney Mets asserted their dominance early in the Mixed Open division following their title win in 2009, defeating the Western Tigers 13-0. The Sydney Rebels also made their mark early, defeating South West Queensland 16-2, while the South Queensland Sharks also made their intentions clear, defeating the Sunshine Coast by nine touchdowns, 10-1. Other winners included the North Queensland Tropical Cyclones over the Sydney Scorpions 9-4, the Brisbane City Cobras, who were five touchdown winners over the ACT and the Hunter Western Hornets over Central Queensland, 11-3. In round two, the Sharks boosted their percentages with a 16 touchdown win over the South West Queensland Swans, 19-3, while the Mets were nine touchdown winners over Central Queensland. In other results, the Cyclones were four touchdown winners over the Pineapples, the Cobras defeated the Tigers 8-0, the Hornets were seven touchdown winners over the ACT, while the Rebels were three touchdown winners over the Scorpions. Six teams are undefeated after the first day of play in the Mixed Open division, with the Sharks, Mets, Rebels, Hornets, Cobras and Cyclones all on eight points. In the Men’s 20’s division, the Brisbane City Cobras got off to a good start in round one with their 8-4 win over South West Queensland. The Hunter Hornets were big winners, defeating Central Queensland by six touchdowns, while the North Queensland Tropical Cyclones had a strong win over the Sydney Rebels 9-5. The Sydney Scorpions and the Southern Suns were also winners in round one, defeating the South Queensland Sharks and the Sunshine Coast Pineapples by one touchdown respectively. In round two, Central Queensland got their first win of the day, beating South West Queensland while the Hornets made it two from two when they defeated the Pineapples 10-3. Other winners in this round include the Rebels over the Scorpions, the Cobras over the Sharks and North Queensland over the Suns.South West Queensland got their first win of the competition in round three, when they defeated the Scorpions 6-4. The Cobras were also 5-3 winners over the Cyclones, the Rebels were four touchdown winners over Central Queensland and the Pineapples and the Sharks played out a 4-all draw. In the Women’s 20’s division, the Sydney Mets got out to an impressive start, defeating Singapore 13-0, while the Sunshine Coast Pineapples were also in good form early, beating the Northern Eagles 7-0. The South Queensland Sharks were five touchdown winners over Central Queensland, as were the Brisbane City Cobras over the Hunter Hornets. The Southern Suns were also winners in round one, defeating North Queensland. The Suns continued their good form in round two, with their 9-1 win over the Eagles, while the Cobras were also big winners over Singapore, 12-1. Other winners for round two included the Mets over Central Queensland, the Sharks by two touchdowns over the Hornets and the Rebels, defeating the Cyclones 6-3. In the Women’s 27’s division, the Western Tigers started their campaign strongly, defeating Central Queensland 8-1, while the Hornets were also comprehensive winners, beating the Sunshine Coast 6-0. Nothing separated the North Queensland Cyclones and the Sunshine Coast, playing out a 1-all draw, while Victoria started their quest for a second title in three years with a three touchdown win over the Brisbane City Cobras. Victoria continued their winning ways in round two, defeating the Cyclones 6-4, while the Tigers also made it two from two after beating the Cobras by three touchdowns. The Pineapples hit back in round two, defeating Central Queensland 9-0, while the Hornets had a five touchdown win over the Sharks. The Hornets won their third game of the day in round three, defeating the Tigers by one touchdown, while Victoria also remained undefeated following their 7-4 win over the Pineapples. The Sharks were three touchdown winners over Central Queensland, while North Queensland defeated the Cobras by two, 7-5. In the Men’s 30’s division, the ACT started their campaign off strongly, defeating the North Queensland Cyclones team (30’s) 17-3. The Sydney Scorpions, the Western Tigers and the Sydney Mets were all five touchdown winners, beating the South Queensland Sharks, the Cyclones 35’s side and the Hunter Hornets respectively. In the other games, the Sunshine Coast Pineapples drew with Central Queensland, while South Australia defeated the Defence Warriors 6-5.In round two, the Mets had a strong win over Central Queensland 11-0, while the Suns were 11-2 winners over the Cyclones 30’s side. Other winners included the Scorpions over the Tigers, Defence over the North Queensland 35’s side, the Sharks over the Cobras and the ACT were 9-4 winners over the Pineapples.The Scorpions continued their winning ways in round three, defeating the Cyclones 35’s side, as did the ACT, defeating Central Queensland 12-2. The Mets also remained undefeated, beating the Suns 5-3, while South Australia beat the Sharks 4-3. The Hornets were 6-4 winners over the Cyclones’ 35’s and the Cobras defeated the Defence Warriors 7-1. In the Women’s 35’s division, the South Queensland Sharks started off strongly, defeating the Tigers by six touchdowns. The Hunter Hornets and the Sunshine Coast played out a 3-all draw, while South West Queensland beat North Queensland 5-2. In round two, the Sharks got their second win of the day, defeating the Pineapples 4-1. South West Queensland also got their second win, defeating the Tigers 3-1, while the Hornets defeated North Queensland 7-2. In the Women’s 40’s division, South West Queensland started strongly, defeating Central Queensland 8-1. The South Queensland Sharks and the North Queensland Tropical Cyclones were both three touchdown winners, defeating the Sunshine Coast and the Brisbane City Cobras respectively.The Cobras turned their form around in round two, defeating Central Queensland 8-0. The Scorpions were five touchdown winners over the Pineapples, while South West Queensland defeated the Sharks 3-2. North Queensland got their second win of the day in round three, defeating the Pineapples 4-1, while the Cobras were also three touchdown winners over the Scorpions. In the other game, the Sharks were too strong for Central Queensland, winning 7-2.In the Men’s 40’s division, the South Queensland Sharks were impressive in round one, defeating the Hunter Hornets 17-4, as was the Sunshine Coast Pineapples in their game against the Defence Warriors, winning 11-1. South West Queensland and the North Queensland Tropical Cyclones were also big winners, beating the ACT and Central Queensland 9-2 respectively. Other winners for round one were the Brisbane City Cobras over the Western Tigers 3-1 and the Sydney Scorpions over the Northern Eagles 9-3. In round two, the Defence Warriors and the Hornets played out a 5-all draw, while the Sharks were big winners over Central Queensland, 11-2. The Cyclones were three touchdown winners over the Pineapples, as were the Cobras over the Eagles 5-2. The ACT just edged out the Tigers 6-5, while the Scorpions won their game against South West Queensland 7-4.In the Men’s 45’s division, South West Queensland were unstoppable in the first round, defeating Central Queensland 11-0, while the South Queensland Sharks were just as impressive against the Defence Warriors, winning 10-0. The Sydney Scorpions recorded a 6-2 win over the Western Tigers, while the Sunshine Coast Pineapples were five touchdown winners over the Hunter Western Hornets. The Sharks were just as dominant in round two, defeating Central Queensland 14-2, while the Scorpions defeated the Defence Warriors 8-1. The Sunshine Coast and North Queensland were both 4-3 victors in round two, defeating the Tigers and the Hornets respectively. The Scorpions and North Queensland played out a 5-all draw in the third round, while the Defence Warriors just edged out Central Queensland 4-3. The Sharks were 7-2 winners over the Hornets, while South West Queensland were three touchdown winners over the Tigers, 6-3.In the Men’s 50 division, the ACT started strongly, defeating the South Queensland Sharks 10-0. The Brisbane City Cobras were five touchdown winners over the Northern Eagles, while the Hunter Hornets were 6-2 winners over the Western Tigers. The Scorpions were two touchdown winners over Central Queensland, while the Southern Suns and North Queensland played out a 5-all draw. The Sydney Mets were also one touchdown winners, defeating South West Queensland 4-3.In round two, Central Queensland and the Mets were three touchdown winners, beating the Cobras and the ACT respectively. The Suns were two touchdown winners over South West Queensland, as were the Cyclones over the Sharks. The Scorpions were also winners, beating the Tigers 4-1, while the Hornets were 6-1 winners over the Eagles. In the Senior Mixed division, the home side were dominant early, with the Pineapples defeating the Hunter Hornets 10-1. South West Queensland was also a big winner, beating 9-2 the Defence Warriors 9-2. The Brisbane Cobras were one touchdown winners over the Northern Eagles, as were the Sydney Scorpions against Central Queensland. In round two, the Sharks posted a big score against the Hornets, winning 13-0. The Eagles were also big winners, defeating the Pineapples 12-3. The Scorpions and South West Queensland played out a 7-all draw, while the Cobras defeated Central Queensland 4-2. In round three, the Cobras were 5-2 winners over the Sharks, while Central Queensland was defeated by South West Queensland 5-3. The Scorpions were big winners over the Hornets, 8-0, while the Defence Warriors defeated the Eagles by one touchdown. Stay tuned to the TFA and NTL websites, as well as the Touch Football Australia Facebook page to keep up to date with all the latest information.
The Alberta Government is reporting hundreds of millions of dollars in new investment following international trade missions, but the economic development and trade minister says where the province goes in 2018 is still an open question.“We haven’t determined as of today which markets we’re going to be going into,” Deron Bilous said Tuesday.Bilous was joined by representatives from companies and stakeholders discussing his several ministerial missions in 2017, which the government says led to over $500 million in actual trade and investment since April 2017.The province reports that in the first 10 months of the year, Alberta exports were $82.7 billion, up 31 per cent from the same period in 2016, accounting for 64 per cent of Canada’s entire trade increase.Bilous’ trips included the U.K., Germany, Ukraine and the United Arab Emirates, but Bilous also highlighted his trips to Asia.“China’s a great example of a country that over the last 13 months I’ve been into three times,” he said. “Korea and Japan, there have been a number of missions, [but] what I can say to you is stay tuned.”Bilous’ trips received endorsements from Headwater Engineering, Ketek Group, General Electric International, the Alberta Industrial Heartland Association and the Edmonton International Airport.
VICTORIA – British Columbia’s government is counting on businesses, communities and residents to help fight climate change over the coming decades, the province’s environment minister said Monday.George Heyman has introduced legislation that includes new targets for dramatic cuts to carbon pollution, aiming for a 40 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions over the next 12 years.By 2040, the province wants emission levels to be slashed by 60 per cent, Heyman said.“We have to make steady progress,” he said. “We have to tell British Columbians what our comprehensive plan is.”Heyman said the plan will involve reducing emissions in the transportation industry, cutting energy consumption in public, commercial and residential buildings, and exploring new climate-friendly technologies.“I know that industry is here to work with us,” he said. “We’re working with them in a way that will keep them in business, keep them providing jobs for British Columbians and meeting our climate targets.”Currently, B.C. has a target of reducing carbon emissions by 80 per cent by 2050. Heyman said the new legislation will not change that goal.The targets are based on emission levels measured in 2007.The former Liberal government introduced legislated goals a decade ago to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 33 per cent by 2020. In 2015, the government said it could not hit that target but was still aiming for reductions.Heyman said his government will release its climate strategy this fall, including plans to establish emission reduction action for industries and communities.Andrew Weaver, leader of the Green Party, said in a statement that the new targets are a step towards making B.C. a leader in climate action.“This is a huge opportunity to build a thriving 21st-century economy centred around innovation,” he said.
The NRRM will MEANINGFULLY ENGAGE with its residents, understand and respond to the communities, FOSTERING CONNECTION between community and Council. The NRRM will ENGAGE and EMPOWER communities, ensuring ADEQUATE REPRESENTATION in decisions affecting the region. Environment The NRRM will DEMONSTRATE LEADERSHIP (through promotion, education, support and innovation) in meeting the targets established within the Municipality’s sustainability strategies. Infrastructure The NRRM will make INFORMED DECISIONS regarding the building, operation, maintenance, renewal, replacement and disposal of infrastructure assets “Council has a roadmap to help direct efforts toward the projects that will best achieve the needs of our municipality. We intend to ensure that we concentrate on building a resilient region that balances economic and social well-being of the people that live here,” said Mayor Gary Foster. “Reflecting community needs for the term of Council. These priorities will guide every aspect of municipal budgets, goals, objectives and actions. The culmination of extensive deliberations by Regional Council over the past several months.” The NRRM will confirm that initiatives are centred on the goals within the Strategic Plan, reporting to Council periodically to measure progress towards the Council’s objectives. Regional Council is now reviewing actions and measures to complete the plan.Regional Council has updated its vision from the previous iteration to state; “The NRRM will be resilient – using available resources to maintain balance across the economic, social and environmental wellbeing of the community. With diverse choices and ample opportunities for employment, education, recreation, housing and health and wellness services, the Northern Rockies will thrive. We will proudly embrace the character of our unique northern communities and create innovative solutions that enhance our quality of life.” The Plan is built within a framework of the following Core Values: FORT NELSON, B.C. – The Northern Rockies Regional Council has approved its 2019-2022 Strategic Plan. The Strategic Plan for the next four years reflects the Northern Rockies Regional Municipality (NRRM) Council’s vision, goals and priorities. According to the NRRM, using the Plan as a guide will ensure the alignment of efforts with Council priorities, to provide a framework for resource allocation and building consensus among members. Fostering partnerships Engaging and representing regional stakeholders Building positive relationships Communicating in an open, transparent & accessible manner Maintaining transparency & accountability Being fiscally responsible Leveraging the NRRM’s unique features Taking a solution-based approach The Strategic Plan is developed upon five foundational pillars; each pillar contains goals to direct actions and initiatives. Economy The NRRM will strive to STRENGTHEN and DIVERSIFY the economy Social The NRRM will remain Committed to a HIGH QUALITY of life for the residents of the NRRM The NRRM will be DRIVEN to achieve EQUITABLE ACCESS TO HEALTH CARE. Governance
Washington: The designation of Pakistan-based JeM chief Masood Azhar as a global terrorist by the UN demonstrates the international commitment to rooting out terrorism in Pakistan and bringing security and stability to South Asia, the White House has said. The UN sanctions committee on the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda on Wednesday announced the designation of Azhar, leader of Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), over its ties to Al-Qaeda. The JeM has claimed responsibility for the Pulwama suicide attack that killed 40 CRPF soldiers and led to a spike in military tensions between India and Pakistan. Also Read – India gets first tranche of Swiss account details under automatic exchange framework Reacting to the development, Garrett Marquis, spokesperson of the National Security Council, White House said: “Designating Azhar demonstrates international commitment to rooting out terrorism in Pakistan and bringing security and stability to South Asia”. The US commends the United Nations Security Council 1267 Sanctions Committee for the designation of Azhar, the leader of JeM, a UN-designated terrorist group that was responsible for the February 14 terrorist attack in Kashmir that killed over 40 Indian security personnel, Marquis said in a statement. Also Read – Trio win Nobel Medicine Prize for work on cells, oxygen Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also welcomed the move and said that it is a victory for the American diplomacy and the international community against terrorism. Pompeo also congratulated the US mission in the UN which took the lead in America’s diplomatic effort to designate Azhar as a global terrorist, after China finally lifted its nearly 10-year technical hold on such an effort by India, the United States and other permanent members of the Security Council including Britain and France. “Congrats to our team @USUN for their work in negotiating JEM’s Masood Azhar’s #UN designation as a terrorist,” Pompeo tweeted. “This long-awaited action is a victory for American diplomacy and the international community against terrorism, and an important step towards peace in South Asia,” Pompeo said. Meanwhile, State Department spokesperson Morgan Ortagus said that the JeM has been responsible for numerous terrorist attacks and is a serious threat to regional stability and peace in South Asia. “The JeM was designated by the United States as a Foreign Terrorist Organization and Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT) in 2001 and has been listed by the UN since 2001,” she said. The US also designated Azhar as an SDGT in 2010. “As JEM’s founder and leader, Azhar clearly met the criteria for designation by the UN. This listing requires all the UN member states to implement an asset freeze, a travel ban, and an arms embargo against Azhar. We expect all countries to uphold these obligations,” Ortagus said. Today’s designation is an important step in promoting a peaceful and stable South Asia, she said. “In line with this vision, we appreciate Pakistani Prime Minister Khan’s stated commitment that Pakistan, for the sake of its own future, will not allow militant and terrorist groups to operate from its territory,” Ortagus said. The spokesperson said that the US looks forward to further and sustained actions from Pakistan as outlined in its National Action Plan consistent with its international obligations. The US, France along with the UK had moved the proposal to designate Azhar as a “global terrorist” in the UN Security Council’s 1267 Al Qaeda Sanctions Committee in February, just days after the deadly Pulwama terror attack. A veto-wielding permanent member of the UNSC, China was the sole hold-out in the 15-nation body on the bid to blacklist Azhar, blocking attempts by placing a “technical hold” and asking for “more time to examine” the proposal.
Editor’s note: This article is adapted from previous articles about how our March Madness predictions work.We’ve been issuing probabilistic March Madness forecasts in some form since 2011, when FiveThirtyEight was just a couple of people writing for The New York Times. Initially, we focused on the men’s NCAA Tournament, publishing a table that gave each team’s probability of advancing deep (or not-so-deep) into the tournament. Over the years, we expanded to forecasting the women’s tournament as well. And since 2016, our forecasts have updated live, as games are played. Below are the details on each step that we take — including calculating power ratings for teams, win probabilities for each game and the chance that each remaining team will make it to any given stage of the bracket. Men’s team ratings March Madness Predictions: FiveThirtyEight’s men’s and women’s NCAA Tournament forecasting models calculate the chance of each team reaching each round. See our predictions for 2018 » Our men’s model is principally based on a composite of six computer power ratings:Ken Pomeroy’s ratingsJeff Sagarin’s “predictor” ratingsSonny Moore’s ratingsJoel Sokol’s LRMC ratingsESPN’s Basketball Power IndexFiveThirtyEight’s Elo ratings (described below)Each of these ratings has a strong track record in picking tournament games. We shouldn’t make too much of the differences among them: They are all based on the same basic information — wins and losses, strength of schedule, margin of victory — computed in slightly different ways. We use six systems instead of one, however, because each system has different features and bugs, and blending them helps to smooth out any rough edges. (Those rough edges matter because even small differences can compound over the course of a single-elimination tournament that requires six or seven games to win.)To produce a pre-tournament rating for each team, we combine those computer ratings with a couple of human rankings:The NCAA selection committee’s 68-team “S-curve”Preseason rankings from The Associated Press and the coachesThese rankings have some predictive power — if used in moderation. They make up one-fourth of the rating for each team; the computer systems are three-fourths.It’s not a typo, by the way, to say that we look at preseason rankings. The reason is that a 30- to 35-game regular season isn’t all that large a sample. Preseason rankings provide some estimate of each team’s underlying player and coaching talent. It’s a subjective estimate, but it nevertheless adds some value, based on our research. If a team wasn’t ranked in either the Associated Press or Coaches polls, we estimate its strength using the previous season’s final Sagarin rating, reverted to the mean.To arrive at our FiveThirtyEight power ratings, which are a measure of teams’ current strength on a neutral court and are displayed on our March Madness predictions interactive graphic, we make two adjustments to our pre-tournament ratings.The first is for injuries and player suspensions. We review injury reports and deduct points from teams that have key players out of the lineup. This process might sound arbitrary, but it isn’t: The adjustment is based on Sports-Reference.com’s Win Shares, which estimates the contribution of each player to his team’s record while also adjusting for a team’s strength of schedule. So our program won’t assume a player was a monster just because he was scoring 20 points a game against the likes of Abilene Christian and Austin Peay. The injury adjustment also works in reverse: We review each team to see which are healthier going into the tournament than they were during the regular season.The second adjustment takes place only once the tournament is underway. The FiveThirtyEight model gives a bonus to teams’ ratings as they win games, based on the score of each game and the quality of their opponent. A No. 12 seed that waltzes through its play-in game and then crushes a No. 5 seed may be much more dangerous than it initially appeared; our model accounts for this. On the flip side, a highly rated team that wins but looks wobbly against a lower seed often struggles in the next round, we’ve found.When we forecast individual games, we apply a third and final adjustment to our ratings, for travel distance. Are you not at your best when you fly in from LAX to take an 8 a.m. meeting in Boston? The same is true of college basketball players. In extreme cases (a team playing very near its campus or traveling across the country to play a game), the effect of travel can be tantamount to playing a home or road game, despite being on an ostensibly neutral court. This final adjustment gives us a team’s travel-adjusted power rating, which is then used to calculate their chance of winning that game.Women’s team ratings We calculate power ratings for the women’s tournament in much the same way as we do for the men’s. However, because of the relative lack of data for women’s college basketball — a persistent problem when it comes to women’s sports — the process has a few differences:Three of the six power ratings that we use for the men’s tournament aren’t available for women. Fortunately, that means three of them are: Sagarin’s “predictor” ratings, Sokol’s LRMC ratings and Moore’s ratings. We also use a fourth system, the Massey Ratings.The NCAA doesn’t publish the 68-team S-curve data for the women. So we use the teams’ seeds instead, with the exception of the four No. 1 seeds, which the selection committee does list in order.For the women’s tournament, there isn’t much in the way of injury reports or advanced individual statistics, so we don’t include injury adjustments.Turning power ratings into a forecastOnce we have power ratings for every team, we need to turn them into a forecast — that is, the chance of every team reaching any round of the tournament.Most of our sports forecasts rely on Monte Carlo simulations, but March Madness is different; because the structure of the tournament is a single-elimination bracket, we’re able to directly calculate the chance of teams advancing to a given round.We calculate the chance of any team beating another with the following Elo-derived formula, which is based on the difference between the two teams’ travel-adjusted power ratings:1.01.0+10−travel_adjusted_power_rating_diff∗30.464/4001.01.0+10−travel_adjusted_power_rating_diff∗30.464/400Because a team needs to win only a single game to advance, this formula gives us the chance of a team reaching the next round in the bracket. The probability of a team reaching a future round in the bracket is based on a system of conditional probabilities. In other words, the chance of a team reaching a given round is the chance they reach the previous round, multiplied by their chance of beating any possible opponent in the previous round, weighted by their likelihood of meeting each of those opponents.Live win probabilitiesWhile games are being played, our interactive graphic displays a box for each one that shows updating win probabilities for both teams, as well as the score and the time remaining. These probabilities are derived using logistic regression analysis, which lets us plug the current state of a game into a model to produce the probability that either team will win the game. Specifically, we used play-by-play data from the past five seasons of Division I NCAA basketball to fit a model that incorporates:Time remaining in the gameScore differencePregame win probabilitiesWhich team has possession, with a special adjustment if the team is shooting free throwsThe model doesn’t account for everything, however. If a key player has fouled out of a game, for example, the model doesn’t know, and his or her team’s win probability is probably a bit lower than what we have listed. There are also a few places where the model experiences momentary uncertainty: In the handful of seconds between the moment when a player is fouled and the free throws that follow, for example, we use the team’s average free-throw percentage to adjust its win probability. Still, these probabilities ought to do a reasonably good job of showing which games are competitive and which are essentially over.Also displayed in the box for each game is our “excitement index” (check out the lower-right corner) — that number also updates throughout a game and can give you a sense of when it’ll be most fun to tune in. Loosely based on Brian Burke’s NFL work, the index is a measure of how much each team’s chances of winning have changed over the course of the game.The calculation behind this feature is the average change in win probability per basket scored, weighted by the amount of time remaining in the game. This means that a basket made late in the game has more influence on a game’s excitement index than a basket made near the start of the game. We give additional weight to changes in win probability in overtime. Values range from 0 to 10, although they can exceed 10 in extreme cases.FiveThirtyEight’s Elo ratingsIf you’ve been a FiveThirtyEight reader for really any length of time, you probably know that we’re big fans of Elo ratings. We’ve introduced versions for the NBA and the NFL, among other sports. Using game data from ESPN, Sports-Reference.com and other sources, we’ve also calculated Elo ratings for men’s college basketball teams dating back to the 1950s. Our Elo ratings are one of the six computer rating systems used in each team’s pre-tournament rating.Our methodology for calculating these Elo ratings is very similar to the one we use for the NBA. Elo is a measure of a team’s strength that is based on game-by-game results. The information that Elo relies on to adjust a team’s rating after every game is relatively simple — including the final score and the location of the game. (As we noted earlier, college basketball teams perform significantly worse when they travel a long distance to play a game.)It also takes into account whether the game was played in the NCAA Tournament. We’ve found that historically, there are actually fewer upsets in the tournament than you’d expect from the difference in teams’ Elo ratings, perhaps because the games are played under better and fairer conditions in the tournament than in the regular season. Our Elo ratings account for this and weight tournament games slightly higher than regular-season ones.Because Elo is a running assessment of a team’s talent, at the beginning of each season, a team gets to keep its rating from the end of the previous one, except that we also revert it to the mean. The wrinkle here, compared with our NFL Elo ratings, is that we revert college basketball team ratings to the mean of the conference.And that’s about it! (Congratulations if you made it this far.) While we make no guarantee that you’ll win your pool if you use our system, we think it’s done a pretty good job over the years. Hopefully, you’ll have fun using it to make your picks, and it will add to your enjoyment of both NCAA tournaments.
Jorginho has become the key man for Napoli throughout the past couple of seasons and he is very close to joining Manchester City – and even the Napoli president admitted that this move is about to be done.Antonio De Laurentiis claimed that he hasn’t agreed with the Citizens on the exact price yet but the negotiations are going well and it is likely that this transfer will be finished in a while. He also added that he has got a good relationship with Manchester City and there is nothing that should stop this move from happening.Report: City are stunned by Norwich George Patchias – September 14, 2019 Manchester City was stunned by Norwich City in todays Premier League clash.Much has been made in recent days of the potential impact of Aymeric…The Napoli president spoke about this move as he said, according to Calcio Mercato:“We don’t have a definitive agreement on the price yet, but we are approaching the end. Everything can happen, but it’s possible that the transfer will be concluded in the next days. We have to negotiate, but we have a very good relationship with the leaders of Man City.”
City boss Pep Guardiola said on TV today that his team is not expecting to add more players for their title defense in the Premier League“People say, ‘Can you improve on 100 points?’ – I say no. We are not here to do that,” Manchester City boss Pep Guardiola told Sky Sports tonight.“But individually the players can improve. Of course, we can improve. If I felt we could not improve the team I would call my chairman and say, ‘OK, I leave’,” he added.“We believe we can do better, dominate more and we will try to do it. Is it going to happen? I don’t know but we believe we can do it,” he said.Jose Mourinho is sold on Lampard succeeding at Chelsea Tomás Pavel Ibarra Meda – September 14, 2019 Jose Mourinho wanted to give his two cents on Frank Lampard’s odds as the new Chelsea FC manager, he thinks he will succeed.There really…The current English Premier League champions only made one major addition to their squad this summer, after acquiring Riyad Mahrez.The 27-year-old winger came to City after playing for four seasons with Leicester City, where he scored 42 goals in 158 matches.The France-born Algerian recently said he believes his team can win the Champions League this year.“It’s still hard [to accept] that we couldn’t achieve more than we did last season. As always, this will be our target – to be better in this competition,” he said.